India is likely to face a vaccine shortage, according to the Indian School of Business (ISB), a premier business school in India, with the current rate and supply of the coronavirus vaccine. The study pointed out that if the current supply rate of the vaccine continues, it will be difficult to sustain even the vaccination rate seen in the first week of April.

As per the presentation presented to the NITI Aayog, ISB indicated that there are chances that many states in India will continue to experience vaccine shortage by the end of July too. The presentation was presented by ISB’s Prof Sarang Deo, Prof Sripad Devalkar and research associates Abhishek Reddy and Syed Junaid. Post the presentation the NITI Aayog detailed the challenges that the country could face with the vaccine rollout. 

“The average vaccination rate masks considerable variability across rates. Typically, the vaccination rate is lowest on Sunday and highest on Monday. In the first week of April, while the average daily vaccination rate was 34.6 lakh doses, it was only 17.3 lakh on April 4 (Sunday) and as high as 45 lakh doses on April 5 (Monday),” Devalkar said.

As per the Ministry of Health India as on 30th April, 2021, “Total COVID19 Cases in India (as on April 30, 2021) 81.99% Cured/Discharged/Migrated (1,53,84,418) 16.90% Active cases (31,70,228) 1.11% Deaths (2,08,330)” 

As per a tweet by Dr Harsh Vardhan, Minister of Health and Family Welfare “20 lakh+ #COVID19vaccine doses given till 8 pm push cumulative doses administered to nearly 15.21 Cr “ 

Vaccine shortage india

It is also to be noted that more than 2.28 crore beneficiaries have registered to schedule their COVID vaccination. As per data On average, 34.6 lakh vaccinations were performed per day in the first week of April in India. 

One of the authors pointed out that initially, the vaccines were sufficient when distributed to the states as the turnout was low. However, with the rise in demand, the stock seemed low. 

 “In most states in India, vaccination has not really penetrated far beyond urban and semi-urban areas. The lowest level in the public health system, where vaccinations are done, is primary health centre (PHC). In contrast, routine immunisations are done at anganwadis, which are below the PHC,” he explained.

Various Government authorities have denied vaccine shortage claims and have made statements that they are well equipped and stocked up for the vaccination drive.

Mumbai vaccination centre closed

 Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) said that the vaccination in Mumbai will be closed for three days due to the lack of adequate vaccines. It also said that the vaccination of citizens aged 18 years and above is also likely to start late due to the shortage of vaccines. 

”Owing to non-availability of vaccine stock, no vaccination will be conducted at any Govt/BMC/Pvt CVC for the next 3 days (30 Apr-2 May). All efforts are being made to make more stock available & resume the drive. We urge Mumbaikars to cooperate with BMC”, BMC tweeted on April 29th. 

The Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai (MCGM) said that 40 out of 73 private COVID-19 vaccination centres in Mumbai will not be vaccinating on Thursday, April 29, 2021, due to the shortage. 

By Team

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