When will India begin to see a decline in its COVID-19 cases?

India’s COVID-19 cases have sparked a global concern as they rose by a record number of 4,14,188 infections, taking the active caseload to 36,45,164. The second wave of COVID-19 is more challenging and aggressive when compared to the first wave. The impact of the pandemic is not just being felt in the metro cities, but smaller towns are also facing the brunt of the virus.

The country is suffering from the world’s worst COVID surge and the health infrastructure is completely on its knees. Amid the crisis, some questions remain exactly the same: When will India begin to see a decline in its COVID cases and when will this crisis end?

Well, actually no one really knows by when India is going to see a drop in the number of COVID-19 cases. But there are many scientists and researchers who are continuously examining the trend and have an answer to our queries to a certain extent.

Recently, a study conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington revealed that COVID-19 is going to get worse in the month of May and will peak around mid-May. A similar prediction came from scientists at the Indian Institute of Technology in Kanpur and Hyderabad using ‘Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach” (SUTRA) model.

Even in 2020, an MIT study predicted that India would be the worst-hit country in the world. The study said that the country would see around 2.87 lakh cases by mid-May 2021, but in reality, the number of cases that are arising right now is just double the number that was predicted.

However, while different studies were predicting the rise of COVID in the month of May, a recent Credit Suisse study has predicted that the flaming rise in the COVID-19 cases, would decline rapidly as a larger population of the country will develop antibodies against COVID-19.

Many virologists in India believe that the current surge in coronavirus cases may go down by the middle to the end of May. Although the cases will not drop as quickly as they rose.

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