On May 15th 2024, China introduced a regulation on South China Sea titled “Coast Guard Administrative Law Enforcement Procedures”, on its official website ccg.gov.cn. The 92 pages document encompasses of 15 chapters and 281 articles. It is mainly an advisory for those who want to enter the disputed Second Thomas Shoal (in the SCS) and about how the Chinese Coast Guards should deal with “illegal infringement” into the water body. The document especially highlights that Chinese coast guard can confiscate ships and detain individuals for up to 60 days if they are suspected of entering the claimed area illegally or are found performing illegal activities. Beijing drafted and released the document after there was a number of altercations between the two nations coast guard and fishermen and even the navy. While disputes between Manila and Beijing have existed in the past, the recent raging conflict is a marked escalation due to former’s closer than ever ties with the US and other western powers. The conflict had brought the two super powers at the brink of war, for Mutual Defence Treaty binds the US and the Philippines, into defending each other in the event of an armed attacks. Although, China did not use arms and ammunitions, it however, resorted to use of jet stream water cannons attacks on the supply mission vessels that were enroute BRP Sierra Madre, a commissioned vessel of the Philippines navy. It was after these series of standoffs since March, that China introduced the “regulations”.
Following the “regulations”, its counterpart in the region started showing more presence in the contested shoal, reinstating their sovereign stance over the water body. These frictions have stirred up a global agitation, considering it as a potential flashpoint in Sino-Philippine relations and how its escalation can involve the US and embroil other nations.
The Contention and Competing Narratives
According to U.S Energy Information Administration, SCS is a critical world trade route. Each year billions of barrels of oil and petroleum products and liquified natural gas passes through the region. It is estimated that 40.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 3.6. billion barrels and other valuables lies in the sea. However, due to territorial conflicts in the region the sea hasn’t been explored thoroughly.
Manila worries that its source of natural gas is depleting and asserts urgent exploration of natural gas in the region but joint exploration deals lie dead in the sea due to contention. Rejecting the United Nation Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) of 1982 and Permanent Court of Arbitration rulings in favour of Manila in 2016, China continues to assert it sovereign rights over 90 percent of the SCS based on the historic “nine-dash line”. According to the UNCLOS a country’s territorial waters extend 22.2 km/ 12 nautical miles beyond its coastline, adhering to the convention on one hand, Philippines grounded an old warship BRP Sierra Madre on the Second Thomas Shoal, which is located within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in 1999 and established the vessel as commissioned vessel of Philippines Navy as their interpretation of the UNCLOS. On the other hand, China has constructed over 3000 acres of manmade islands around the Spratly Islands in order to establish its dominance over the SCS from 2013 to 2015, however China argues that Philippines has been trying to occupy the island illegally for 25 years. As China disapproves of UNCLOS in case of SCS dispute, it also argues that Philippines is illegally trying to send construction materials and weapons to Sierra Madre (ship) consistently, and carrying out a long-term occupation of it’s “Ren’ ai Jiao” (Second Thomas Shoal) which is 1000kms away from China’s major land mass Hainan Island, but only 200kms away from Philippines Palawan island, Beijing has also accused Philippine of failing to honour its promise of informing China about its each move in the sea, beforehand.
Changing Leadership and Sino-Philippines Relations
The South China Sea has always remained a decisive factor when it comes to Sino-Philippines bilateral relations, their relation has either remained that of conflict or cooperation depending upon the geopolitical influence of the US and China in the disputed region.
Benigno Aquino III (2010-2016) Moving away from China:
In 2012 Sino-Philippine relations deteriorated due to the Scarborough Shoal Standoff, President Aquino III even filed a case of arbitration against China in 2013 in the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) which had internationalised the issue. The Court ruled in favour of Manila but China refused to comply, stating the historical facts about the nine-dash line. President Aquino had improved accountability and transparency and fought corruption in Philippines, his reign attracted a swamp of foreign direct investment into Philippines, showcasing a promising growth for future and moving away from China.
Rodrigo Duterte (2016-2022) Appeasing China Strategy:
During Duterte’s tenure (2016-2022) Manila’s dependency on Beijing increased. The economic renaissance that he inherited from Aquino III faded away under his watch. As the US grappled with its grave covid pandemic situation, frosty ties between Beijing and Manil warmed up, especially after China generously supplied vaccines to Philippines, following which Duterte has been often criticised for his shallow stance and the so-called “gentleman’s agreement” over the SCS standoff. He maintained humble presence in the disputed region, and often stated that China is the key to Philippines economic growth and he believed in maintaining friendly ties with its neighbouring country.
Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (2022- present) Confronting China and Transparency Strategy:
New president Marcos Jr., sworn in stating that unlike Duterte he fully supports the 2016 ruling by the PCA and asserts country’s sovereign rights over the Second Thomas Shoal. The statement was made amidst a public uproar in the Philippines against the persisting intimidation and bully of fishermen as well as government vessels by China’s coast guard. While President Marcos, strived to strike a balance between the two super powers in the beginning, as he often said that Philippines need not be dependent on one super power, his policies later showed some inclination towards the US but he established good relations with Australia, France as well. He Organised robust and successful Balikatan annual military exercises in 2023 and 2024 with France and Australia and allowed significant access to the US in order to build three military bases near Taiwan, however, what irked China has also reignited discussions on SCS, globally and has compelled ASEAN to speed up negotiations with China on a code of conduct to mitigate the risk of conflicts in the hotly contested South China Sea and conclude talks by 2026.
ASEAN in the South China Sea
Other ASEAN countries like Brunei, Vietnam and Malaysia too have vested claims in the SCS. Hanoi has accelerated its island building process since September 2023. While at least seven out of ten ASEAN nations claim sovereignty over the SCS, ASEAN remains divided on the issue because most of the nations are heavily dependent on China.
Conclusion
The US and China, two superpower rivals are two largest trading partners of Philippines, therefore balancing the two is of utmost importance in order to bolster its economy. However, in the past two years Beijing and Manila’s rivalry of sovereignty claims over parts of SCS reached its boiling point in 2023 and 2024. The escalated issue has once again brought the impending issue in the limelight; by withdrawing its forces from the tension point and refusing aid from the US, President Marcos has chosen Manila’s safety and at the same time ensured commencement of discussions on South China Sea Code of Conduct which Manila intents. President Marcos Jr. was often accused of provoking China, initiating violence in the disputed region and inviting journalists to tell-a-tale to the world. Although Philippines seems to be far away from exercising its sovereign rights over its EEZ, the episode should be considered its prudent victory, as world viewed the violent episode in the sea and it rekindled discussions on the SCS.