This article aims to provide an overall view on the Red Sea crisis which is vital for global trade. So, what are the issues in the Red Sea, its vulnerabilities and why is it important to the global economy?
On Thursday, 11th of January, the USA and UK conducted a series of Airstrikes on Houthi rebels. This was in response to the attacks in the Red Sea on trade ships. India has also deployed 12 warships, MQ9B UAVs and Boeing P8I planes to augment security of its trade through the Red Sea.
Geographical Positioning of Red Sea
To know the significance of this region, we have to understand its geographical location. The Red Sea is a seawater inlet of the Indian Ocean, lying between Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. It is a major waterway for international shipping. The Red Sea has a surface area of roughly 438,000 km and is about 2,250 km long with a maximum width of 355 km. Overall, it can be said that it joins the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean making it a hotspot for intercontinental trade. The Red Sea, which is linked to the Suez Canal, is considered one of the world’s shortest and most economically efficient sea routes connecting several continents together; Asia, Africa, and Europe. Unlike the air or the land transport, which are often limited and sometimes way too expensive for many goods. It is during this phase when the maritime route serves as one of the strongest backbone for the global movement of oil, machinery, automobiles, electronics, food, and various other raw materials. Usually when a route is shorter, it becomes cheaper and faster, and that’s the sole reason why most countries often prefer it over other routes. This is why any disturbance in the Red Sea quickly becomes a global concern within a few fraction of seconds.
What is a Chokepoint?
According to Wei Liang, a professor of international trade and economic diplomacy at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, a chokepoint has three defining characteristics.
And Suez Canal and the Bab-El-Mandeb Strait, which are the chokepoints of the Red Sea rightfully fit the description. Through the Red Sea an estimated 12% of total world trade is covered annually. It handles 30% of total global container traffic, where each day roughly 500 vessels pass through the region. As much as 8.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and oil products traversed the Red Sea over January-November, according to analytics firm Vortexa. According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, in 2023, a total of 16.2 million metric tons or 51% of LNG commerce passed through the Suez Canal from the Atlantic Basin east, while 15.7 million metric tons passed through from the Pacific Basin west. It is also one of the most important worldwide oil transport routes. This route’s northbound traffic is dominated by European imports, particularly crude oil from Middle Eastern exporters and middle distillates from India and the Middle East. Southbound traffic consists primarily of crude flows from Russia to Asian clients as well as processed goods naphtha and fuel oil. Qatar, the United States and Russia are the most active Suez LNG shippers.
The Bab-El-Mandeb
Bab-el-Mandeb, forms the southern entrance to the Red Sea connecting it with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean beyond. It has Yemen on the northeastern coastline. The Bab-el-Mandeb strait is approximately 20 miles (32 Kilometres) wide at its narrowest point. The Houthis hold a significant stretch of the Yemeni coastline along the Red Sea, providing them with launchpads for attacks and making it difficult for larger vessels to manoeuvre safely in narrow waters. Attacks on merchant vessels in the Red sea is not a new norm and such instances have occurred in the past.
Who Are the ‘Houthis’ and Why Are They Targeting The Ships?
Before jumping into big conclusions, it is very essential to understand who the Houthis are. The term ‘Houthis’ does not refer to any group of pirates or random criminals. It refers to Ansar Allah, a political religious military group formed by members of the Zaidi Shia community in the northern parts of Yemen during the 1990s. The Houthis felt ignored by the government of Yemen, much like how any marginalized community can turn resentful if they believe that the state does not cater to its issues, beliefs, or individual identity. Their founder, Hussain Badreddin al-Houthi, started a movement to protect the Zaidi cultural rights and after he was assassinated in the year 2004, the movement grew stronger than before. From 2004 to 2010, they fought six small-scaled wars against the government of Yemen. The Arab Spring in the year 2011, has further weakened Yemen, and the ‘Houthis’ took advantage of this chaos thereby gaining increasing support and strength especially from the poorer communities who were extremely frustrated with the fierce corruption which took place during that time, the rising fuel prices, and the collapsing governance.
As the movement kept expanding , the Houthis marched towards the capital of Yemen. Capturing a capital is symbolic, because it signals control over the state. This incident was a complete shock for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the U.S., and many other Arab nations, because the Houthis were receiving support directly from Iran. It is not that Iran completely controls the Houthis; rather, Iran is constantly providing weapons, training, intelligence, financially backing them which seems as a deep concern for Saudi Arabia.For Saudi Arabia, which is a Sunni-majority nation, seeing an Iran-backed Shia group gain strong power on its border is certainly a cause of distress. This is why Saudi Arabia led a military intervention in Yemen, turning the country into one of the world’s worst war zones. Meanwhile, the Houthis consolidated their control over most of the parts of northern Yemen and began seeking official recognition as Yemen’s rulers; a demand which still remains unfulfilled till date.
The Sunni–Shia Divide and Regional Rivalry
The roots of Saudi–Iran rivalry isn’t something new, it has been a very old rivalry. After Prophet Muhammad’s death, Muslims disagreed about who should lead them next. The Sunnis, who today make up 85 to 90% of the Muslim world and include Saudi Arabia too, strongly believed that the leader should be chosen by the community itself; thus, they supported Abu Bakr. The Shias, who constitute 10 to 15% globally and is currently led by Iran, believed that the leadership should stay within the Prophet’s family, through his cousin and son-in-law Ali. Although this began as a simple theological dispute, it slowly evolved into a political rivalry for power, influence, and leadership of the Islamic world. Religion became a tool, its like pouring oil instead of water on a fire thereby intensifying the geopolitical conflict rather than trying to calm it. In this rivalry, the Houthis naturally gravitated toward Iran, and not Saudi Arabia.
Why the Red Sea Has Become a Battleground
The Houthis are not randomly attacking any vessel, their actions are very strategic. The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a narrow passage of about 29 kilometers, lies right next to the Houthi-controlled northern Yemen, giving them easy access to most of the major shipping lanes. Nearly 12 to 15% of global trade passes through the Red Sea and Suez Canal region. Disrupting this route forces the ships to take the much longer path around Africa, adding roughly 10 to 14 extra days to their existing journeys, which increases the travel distance by 3,500–4,000 nautical miles, and thereby raising the costs by nearly $1–1.5 million per voyage. This is exactly the kind of pressure which the Houthis wanted to create because it forces the world to take them very seriously. Their message has been very clear and simple: “The world thinks that we are tiny and almost insignificant, but look how the global economy trembles when we interfere in it.”
Another reason why they are attacking the ships is to show solidarity with Gaza and Palestine. For them, this is not only an ideological tactic but also a political one. They aim to portray themselves as defenders of Muslim interests, and strongly challenge theIsraeli-linked vessels, and target both the U.S. and U.K. naval presence. Their actions simultaneously put pressure on Saudi Arabia, Israel, the United States, and Western allies as well. Even though they know they cannot defeat the U.S. militarily, they also know that Yemen’s geography favours them in almost every condition. The mountainous terrain gives the local people an advantage, and the U.S. is already deeply involved in various other conflicts. So the Houthis use this kind of indirect pressure instead of direct confrontation, similar to that fable: the tortoise and rabbit story. Where we get to learn a powerful lesson that its better to be slow but your deed must be impactful.
Global Disruption: How the Crisis Affects the World Economy
As the number of attacks kept increasing, more than 70% of shipping traffic was diverted away from the Red Sea towards the longer African route. Most of the big companies like Maersk, MSC, and Hapag-Lloyd temporarily suspended their transits through the Red Sea because the insurance premiums soared and all the vessels were facing genuine risk. This clearly means that the increased shipping time, higher transportation costs, rising product prices, and inflation across multiple economies is soon going to affect the economy. What might appear as a mere two-week delay actually causes a chain reaction where the factories slow down, importers pay more, and consumers ultimately face higher prices, which is a clear sign of a wreckage in the economy. The Red Sea crisis thus directly affects oil deliveries, food supply chains, electronic components, automobile manufacturing, and pharmaceutical exports too.
India’s Position: Friends With Both The Sides Yet Forced to Protect Itself
India often tries to maintain good relations with both Saudi Arabia and Iran. Saudi Arabia is one of India’s largest oil suppliers and a home to over 2.2 million Indian workers who have migrated there. Iran, on the other hand, allows India to access the Chabahar Port; which is critical for connecting to several regions like Afghanistan and parts of Central Asia. It also shares deep historical and cultural ties with India. Because India is benefiting from good relations on both sides, it cannot take a hard pill of favouring one over the other.
However, India’s concern is not just political; it is mostly related to its economic gains. India’s exports to Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and the U.S. East Coast depends on the Red Sea and Suez Canal route specifically. When the Houthis attack the ships, they do not intentionally target India, but the dangers they do spill over India. To protect the shipping, India has deployed warships such as INS Kolkata and INS Chennai. Their role is purely defensive, just to escort the Indian merchant vessels,responding to every kind of emergency, and ensuring that India’s supply chains remain safe throughout. India does not attack the Houthis unless it becomes a reason for their self-defense mission. This distinction is crucial because India cannot easily afford to antagonize either Saudi Arabia or Iran.
The Future of the Red Sea Crisis
It is extremely unlikely that the crisis will end soon, this won’t happen easily. The most realistic scenario is a slow continuation where the Houthi attacks may decrease temporarily but will not completely disappear. Only if Iran pressures the Houthis, the attacks might reduce significantly but Iran will do so only if it gains something politically.
A major escalation, such as the sinking of a large ship, could easily trigger the stronger U.S. intervention, but for now the U.S. prefers controlled responses rather than going for a full-scale war. A long-term solution requires a political agreement in Yemen, but Yemen is deeply divided among four major groups: the Houthis in the north, the internationally recognized Yemeni government (supported by Saudi Arabia), the Southern Transitional Council demanding an independent South Yemen for them, and various other tribal militias also exists.
Even if the Houthis take full control, the southern groups will certainly resist their governance. So an unified Yemen under the Houthis is unlikely to form. Given all the above scenarios, the global shipping companies will continue using both the routes: the Red Sea when it’s safe, and the Africa route when there’s a high risky situation. But permanently abandoning the Red Sea is nearest to impossible because it is very important and extremely cost-efficient to replace.
Conclusion
The Red Sea crisis is not just a regional conflict; it is a demonstration of how a relatively small group, rooted in the local grievances and shaped by regional rivalries, can directly influence the entire global economy. The Houthis are leveraging geography, ideology, and political opportunity to force global powers to pay severe attention towards them.
The world’s largest economies including India; are feeling the impact through these rising costs, delays, and the need for immediate naval protection. This crisis reminds us that in geopolitics, power does not always come from mere size. Sometimes, like the tortoise, slow and strategic moves can shake the world more than the rabbit’s fastspeed. And until Yemen finds a firm political stability ,the Red Sea issue will remain one of the most sensitive and contested chokepoints on this planet.