Indian PM Modi is all set to visit Ukraine on the 23rd of August, followed by his visit to Polland. He will be the first Indian PM in three decades who visited the country and that too in a crucial time of war. The PM also visited Russia early this summer and discussed about the ongoing conflict. This visit is under the eyeballs of not only the Indians but the whole world as there is a possibility of actual progress in the direction of achieving peace between Russia and Ukraine.
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine rose to a concerning level in 2021 with the expansion of NATO into Russian borders and Russian military drills near Ukraine’s borders. On 23 February 2022, Russia invaded the country of Ukraine. Soon after the invasion, the fight broke into several Ukrainian regions like Kyiv, Mariupol, Kharkiv and Chernobyl. Ukraine also gained its foot and started resisting the Russian troops giving them an even fight. The invasion resulted in the indirect participation of global powers in two fractions, amplifying the effect of the conflict on the globe.
Western powers like the USA and EU directly supported the Ukrainian forces providing them with funds, weapons and ammunitions. China and North Korea, two big military forces that aligned with Russia, enabled a long fight. Western nations put numerous sanctions aiming to cripple the Russian economy and ultimately win the war. In retaliation, Russia cut off oil and natural gas supply to much of Europe pushing it into inflation. Due to the war, the supply chain of wheat and fertilizers was cut off, pushing several agriculture-dependent countries into a food crisis, especially the countries of the global south. There was also an ongoing humanitarian crisis that is the direct consequence of this long-drawn war.
In the meantime, the war is continuing without any progress on peace. What was speculated as a ten-day march and a swift win for Russia, has become a long and active war for more than two years.
Since the start of the war, the two nations had displayed their military capabilities by one-upping the other on the ground. Ukraine’s approach towards Russia is to put Russia in a stalemate with the help of its Western allies on the battlefield so that it can gain leverage at the negotiation table. On the other hand, Russia feels the need to dominate the battle and keep the war on its terms so that it can negotiate with Ukraine and its Western allies and prevent the advancement of NATO on its border countries.
Recently Ukrainian forces advanced into 30KMs (18 Miles) of Russian territory near the Kursk region, by launching a surprise attack in early August. After two weeks the Ukrainian forces claimed 93 villages, an area of nearly 1200 sqkm. As a result, 200,000 people have been evacuated and the regions of Kursk and Belgorod have been in a state of emergency since then. In a press meeting in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin also informed about Ukraine’s attempt at a drone attack on a nuclear power plant in the Kursk region, which was intercepted by Russian defence and a large-scale drone attack on the city of Moscow.
Global powers who are members of the UN Security Council and hold the capability to bring both nations to the negotiation table are directly involved in the conflict. Russia is the aggressor in the war. The USA is an active supplier of funds and weapons that sustain the war from the Ukrainian side. France and UK are the members of NATO, whose advancement near the Russian border is one of the factors for the starting of the war. China directly enables Russia to fight against the Western allies as their decline result falls under its ambition of global dominance. Apart from that several powers are directly in tussle with each other regarding several geopolitical issues like borders, trade and alliances.
Thus, the conflict right now requires a neutral voice that will be considerate of both countries’ reasons and handle the talks without biases. That’s why Indian PM Narendra Modi’s visit to Ukraine is significant to the globe. The visit also highlights India’s diplomacy and belief in dialogue, which navigates tightly in an unstable world order.
India also during this conflict helped cushion the harsh consequences as a result of the war. It helped and united other countries through its G20 presidency to tackle the global food crisis as a result of the war. It also brought Russian oil into the global supply chain, by buying it at a discounted price. During this period India faced heavy criticism from several Western nations but much of the oil was used in Europe only to get refined in India. India by taking this step eased the energy crisis in Europe and prevented the Middle Eastern oil lobbies from shooting up the oil price by dictating the market as the sole supplier of crude oil.
India also in past proved to be a sound voice of reason amidst the noise of polarization. Despite India’s lukewarm relations with Ukraine before the war, India had sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine in times of crisis. During last year’s visit of Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Emine Dzhaparova to India, several talks took place regarding the reconstruction of Ukraine’s infrastructures with the help of Indian companies and the supply of crucial medicine and equipment. Apart from that India also raised the issue of the conflict in several regional and global forums.
India also plays a part in closing the gap between the West and Russia. The tension between the West and Russia is a key factor when it comes to this conflict. India voices Russia’s arguments, within reasons, in order to promote dialogue and diplomacy between the two factions.
Though officials from both countries are vague about the agenda of the visit, India right now stands in a unique position to bring both Russia and Ukraine to the negotiation table and progress towards peace through dialogue and diplomacy.