The story of how a strong fleet with multiple aircraft carriers established supremacy of belligerents during WW II is one that has been heard multiple times since. The centrality of the aircraft carrier to the fleet thus established remained unquestioned for about four decades since. Aircraft Carriers proved to be strong messengers of diplomacy by their mere presence, sometimes through persuasion and by dissuasion, deterrence or compellence to coerce adversaries on many other occasions especially by the United States. The USA were the flag bearers of Carrier centrality and any US intervention across the globe was hardly effected without the involvement of aircraft carriers.
But that seems to have changed now.
Changing Dynamics – Impact of the New World Order
With the change in geo-political scenario and Asia emerging as the cynosure of global change, aircraft carriers have been more often deployed in the Indian Ocean in the past decade as never before. The potency of the carrier has made way even for countries like Thailand to aspire for their possession despite the nation’s limited influence in the Indo-Pacific region as compared to its larger maritime neighbours.
However, the post cold war world in the 21st century witnesses advancements in weapon technology, increased weapon ranges, battle space transparency enabled by advent of space technology, hypersonic weapons, unmanned systems, hybrid and irregular warfare, etc, originating debates on the cost-benefit analysis of aircraft carriers with respect to the influence that they can exert.
The Big Question – Does India Need a Third Aircraft Carrier?
Whilst the debate supporting and opposing aircraft carriers as credible instruments of Comprehensive National Power have been as eternal as the origins of Carriers itself, wise progressive nations have repeatedly only invested in them fully acknowledging their indispensible nature. Not just that, the investment on increasing capabilities, size and number of aircraft carriers has only multiplied over the years.
Considering the fact that Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has emerged as the battleground for geo-political competition in the 21st century, the expanse demands presence, persistence and visibility to establish peace, tranquility, security and development. The IOR is host to the multiple busy sea lanes carrying 80% of the world trade, four-fifth of world’s oil and gas shipments and one-third of bulk cargoes as per open source information in various research articles. The uniqueness of the maritime domain lays international rules for adherence with no organisation to enforce it. Therefore, it is incumbent upon navies to protect the interests of their nation in the ever evolving VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous) world.
Another intriguing yet pertinent attribute of the maritime domain is that most of it constitutes areas that are global commons. If these areas are not protected for one’s interest, it may be misused or exploited to disadvantage of a particular stakeholder. In effect, if you don’t exercise control, someone else would and that may not be in the best interests of your nation. Though not exactly a zero sum game, influence operations by naval forces tend to sway towards the stronger force in capacity and capability. Hence, there is definite need to increase numbers and also the effectiveness of the available force. Varying degrees of control ranging from showing the flag to aggressive actions using weapons may be required depending on context which may change rapidly with hardly any notice. Whereas scaling up from a benign mission such as Human Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) to Anti-Piracy or Anti-Submarine Operations (ASW) would need no time lapse at all for platforms deployed at sea, such versatility may not be the case with land or air power. It is here that the versatility of the aircraft carrier and the Carrier Battle Group comes handy. The factor of presence alongwith persistence for show of force for varying missions is unique that is demonstrated by centrality of a Carrier Task Force.
The dynamics and vast expanse of IOR demands continuous surveillance, monitoring, assistance and assertion in one part or the other at any given period for its safety and security.
Even if we disregard the current Chinese incursions threatening peace and tranquility due to its revisionist advancements, energy security, trade and commerce needs, piracy, armed robbery, maritime terrorism, IUU (Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated) fishing, poaching, maritime connectivity and HADR needs, etc – we still require high force levels that can hardly be met with individuals units. And for the India that aspires to be the preferred security partner in the IOR – need for sizeable numbers of Carriers would be a necessity rather than a luxury in the near future.
Importance of a Carrier Battle Group in Today’s Volatile Scenario
Many situations require comprehensive deployment of units that only a Carrier Battle Group (CBG) can provide posing either as a comforter or as a threat as the case may be. Recent trends indicate that deployment needs would only continue to increase. For instance, since the Israel-Hamas conflict, the escort requirements at Red Sea have only multiplied exponentially. These needs drain the availability of forces at sea for other tasks. A CBG in such cases would be able to handle multiple tasks with high efficiency and effectiveness. It is hence essential to visualise and revere the Carrier as central to an indomitable, composite force rather than a single element.
The Final Argument
Competing naval forces operating in the same maritime domain would necessarily result in a near zero sum game over a period of time if no resistance is offered. The Chinese hegemony spreading to the IOR can only be discounted to India’s peril by the nation’s leadership. History is witness to the fact that the increased Chinese naval deployments have stretched Indian Navy’s efforts to the maximum since the turn of the century. Therefore, it would suffice to appreciate that a continuous presence of Chinese carriers in IOR would necessitate Indian Navy to deploy its own Carrier in the IOR with much more vigour and frequency as there is no such beast at sea that can establish the nation’s will as an aircraft carrier driven task force. Irrespective of varying arguments placed on vulnerability of aircraft carriers to hypersonic missiles and carrier killers like the DF-21 (and DF-26), no threat can nullify its potential capability. The advent of modern threats would face their defences over a period of time and wane in their threat credibility remaining another aspect to be catered for. Hence, such advancements wouldn’t undermine the potential of a force centralised on aircraft carrier
It is necessary to understand what an aircraft carrier brings forth to the table.
- Carrier Task Forces would be central to guarding the strategic choke points and establishing India as the preferred security partner in the IOR.
- As a flag bearer of diplomacy it would undertake ‘shaping operations’ incorporating persuasive, dissuasive, deterrent, and coercive missions and at the same time portray its stance as the iron fist in velvet glove.
In peak of its position in the unipolar world, the United States possessed 11 aircraft carriers and it continues to hold it even today. If India seeks to be a superpower with complete stakes for its survival and development in the IOR, should we not aspire to be a dozen aircraft carrier strong Navy by the turn of the 22nd century? A firm ‘Yes’ would set us on track for our righteous position in the world.