As Hungary takes over the European Union’s rotating presidency, headquarters at Brussels finds itself in an uncomfortable position. The Hungarian prime minister for the past fourteen years has been infamous for his sour relations with the EU and sustained bonhomie with Russia. In the wake of a hapless Ukraine scrambling for war aid, the American elections and raging cultural wars in the Western world, it would be interesting to sit back and enjoy Hungary’s stunts for the next few months.
Victor Orban, the longest serving European leader in the EU, is known to have called fellow EU leaders the ‘technocratic elite of Brussels’ in the past.
No stone has been left unturned for the world to be informed about the strained relationship between the EU and Hungary. Presently, billions of Euros in funds for Hungary are being held back by the EU due to accusations of corruption and non-compliance with the law. Among other issues, migration, LGBTQ+ rights, and Russia are grounds on which both sides don’t seem to see eye to eye.
It is no secret that Orban is an ardent supporter of the former American president, Donald Trump, following in his footsteps and sensationalising questions of populist interest to propel his political career. Alongside this, Hungary has been following a pro-Russian foreign policy since the start of the war in February 2022. Not only has Hungary been the only EU member state to hinder the passage of weapons into Ukraine, but it has also systematically blocked the inflow of funds into Ukraine as war aid by using its power to veto in the EU decision-making process.
The following statement put out by Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania in May this year quite exactly sums up the collective European response towards Orban’s leadership,
‘I think we have to be transparent as to what Hungary’s position currently is .. We looked into this, and apparently about forty one percent of resolutions by the EU on Ukraine have been blocked by Hungary. The EPF (European Peace Facility) is blocked. The accession start is currently being held – Ukrainian accession talks being held hostage by Hungary. And I could go on and on. The declaration on Georgia.
The EPF to Armenia. So basically almost all of our discussions and needed solutions and decisions by the EU are being blocked by just one country. So we have to start seeing this as a systematic approach towards any efforts by the EU to have any meaningful role in foreign affairs. So it’s not case by case. And we have to start talking about this. I know that in some cases it might look as a non diplomatic thing to do because, you know, we’re kind people and polite people. But I think it has gone very, very far.’
The Alliance of Young Democrats Party (Fidesz) which was co-founded by Orban in 1988 began as a liberal political organisation seeking to escape totalitarianism and embrace a Western style democracy. However, since the 80’s a lot seems to have changed. Apart from the general apathy towards the democratic/liberal cohort considered to be the West, Orban has demonstrated an intense hostility against these three issues specifically in the recent months – cultural normalisation of gender fluidity, refusal to accommodate migrants and blatant camaraderie with Russia amid its war with Ukraine.
While running an ideological tirade against migrants of certain nationalities as being potential ‘terrorists’ and assimilation of the LGBTQ+ community as corrupting the traditional Hungarian culture, his party Fidesz has been elected through 2014, 2018 and 2022 with not less than a two thirds of majority.
Currently, the European Court of Justice has imposed a €200 million fine on Hungary for its failure to provide asylum seekers and immigrants with the necessary level of protection mandated by EU law. Furthermore, Hungary has ignored prior charges reported by the bloc as well. The country faces an additional daily fine of €1 million until it alters its policy, indicating that the dispute is likely to prolong.
Daniel Hegedüs, a senior fellow for Central Europe at the German Marshall Fund says, ‘Irrespective of the rotating presidency, there has never been a case where a member state was so alienated from the EU institutions and from the other fellow member states’.
With Power Comes Responsibility?
The EU presidency rotates among its member states every six months. and although the position wields limited legislative power, it provides countries with a platform to highlight their priorities on Europe’s agenda. During this six-month period, the presidency chairs meetings at every level in the Council, helping to ensure efficient administration of the EU’s work in the Council.
Despite its formal adoption through the Lisbon Treaty in 2009, the tradition of rotating presidencies dates back to the inception of European integration. Every six months, one member state assumes the presidency of the EU Council, playing a pivotal role in overseeing the seamless operation of the EU legislative process. Member states in the presidency collaborate closely in trios, working together to establish long-term objectives and draft a unified agenda that outlines the key topics and significant issues to be addressed by the Council over an 18-month period. Based on this framework, each country within the trio devises its own detailed six-month agenda. The current trio comprises Spain, Belgium, and Hungary holding the respective presidencies.
During Hungary’s current presidency, its official mandate includes championing and overseeing the Council’s efforts on EU legislation, advancing the EU agenda, and facilitating seamless legislative processes through timely collaboration among member states. A pivotal aspect of Hungary’s responsibilities is to consistently serve as an impartial and fair mediator in all proceedings. The operative phrase in the list of Hungary’s duties remains, to ‘act as an honest and neutral broker’ at all times.
In stark contrast with its predecessor’s areas of interest while holding the presidency, the Hungarian agenda has in itself caused political furor. While Belgium’s list included themes like EU enlargement and neighbourhood policies, social inclusion/equal opportunities and climate change, the Hungarian agenda is clearly in line with Orban’s political vision –
(i) Enhancing The EU’s Competitiveness
(ii) Reinforcing The EU Defence Policy
(iii) Stemming Illegal Migration
(iv) Shaping the Future of Cohesion Policy
(v) Promoting a Farmer Oriented EU Agricultural Policy
(vi) Addressing Demographic Challenges
As Hungary introduces ‘Make Europe Great Again’ as its official slogan for the presidency, one cannot stop from drawing parallels to former US President Donald Trump. (The outgoing Belgian presidency’s uncontroversial motto was “Protect, Strengthen, Prepare.”)
It is being anticipated that the Hungarian presidency could also turn out to be an impediment to Ukraine’s lasting obsession with wanting to join the EU. Ukraine’s goal of joining the EU involves a complex administrative procedure that requires approval from numerous council decisions – decisions that necessitate unanimous approval and, consequently, are susceptible to a veto. Another method by which Hungary could hinder Ukraine’s advancement towards EU membership is by touching upon a sensitive domestic issue.
Previously, Hungary has accused Ukraine of discriminating against its ethnic Hungarian minority. The incoming Hungarian presidency has stated its intention to closely monitor the protection and enforcement of rights for national minorities in candidate countries.
Trolls Aside, How much Power Will Hungary Actually Yield?
Although Hungary’s six month stint at the council of the EU has provoked media sensation worldwide, it’s essential to consider the practical constraints on Hungary’s influence during this period. For one, contrary to what the media might seem to suggest, Victor Orban is not going to become a one-man legislative author for all issues in Europe. In fact, Hungary can pose little legislative threat to the EU system in the next six months, aside from potentially promoting shocking ideological nuggets and administrative delays.
Another important factor determining Hungary’s influence in Europe would be the fact that it’s assuming its presidency just after the EU elections, meaning that much of the next six months will be taken up with installing a new European Parliament and other executive positions.
It’s true that the presidency only grants Hungary very limited power in terms of being able to enact any changes, and if other countries want to oppose any issue, they can always override the presidency and bring it to a vote. Most legislative proposals originate from the European Commission and are endorsed by both member states and the European Parliament.
As a Western European diplomat told German news broadcaster DW (Deutsche Welle), ‘Orban and his people are very well aware that other member states will step in and take over if they make a mess of the EU agenda … At most they will use the platform to do some trolling, like with their slogan. It’s up to all of us to be disciplined enough not to take the bait.’
While our imagination may tempt us to be more creative, realistically, there is little likelihood of any real time significant consequences resulting from Orban assuming the administrative leadership of the EU in the coming months.
However, some certainties remain. Among titillating media headlines, the world, especially the young, should prepare itself for some ideas coming out of Europe. These ideas could seem shocking, but at least they would be brand new.