France is in political turmoil after successive governments collapsed and another prime minister resigned. With a fragmented parliament and rising debt fuelling protests, new Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu faces the daunting task of restoring stability at home and credibility in Europe.
A Gamble Gone Wrong
France’s current political turmoil can be traced back to President Emmanuel Macron’s decision in June 2024 to dissolve the National Assembly after his party’s disastrous performance in the European elections. The move was intended as a show of strength, a way to regain momentum and assert his authority. Instead, it unleashed a chain reaction that has left French politics fractured and uncertain.
The elections produced a hung parliament, split almost evenly between three blocs: Macron’s centrist Ensemble, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s left-wing Popular Front. None held a majority, and none were willing to cooperate with the others. The French political system, long accustomed to strong presidential authority, suddenly found itself paralyzed.
In the months that followed, Macron appointed prime ministers in quick succession, each failing to overcome the deadlock. Gabriel Attal, his young protégé, collapsed under parliamentary hostility. Michel Barnier, a seasoned statesman and former Brexit negotiator, could not survive the backlash against his austerity-driven budget (a state of severe government restraint to cut budget deficits through spending cuts, tax increases, or a combination).
François Bayrou, chosen as a stabilizing figure, was toppled after his plan to cut €44 billion in spending- including the abolition of public holidays and freezes on pensions- sparked protests and a failed confidence vote. By late 2025, France found itself in the throes of instability, with no clear way out.
The New Prime Minister: Sébastien Lecornu Steps In
Into this storm has stepped Sébastien Lecornu, the former defence minister and a close Macron ally. At 39, he was the youngest person to hold the defence portfolio and is now tasked with attempting the nearly impossible: to restore a semblance of stability to French politics.
Lecornu’s record at the defence ministry earned him respect within military and European circles, particularly for his focus on strengthening France’s armed forces and positioning Paris as a central pillar of European security. His appointment as prime minister is an effort by Macron to project competence and continuity. Yet it remains uncertain whether Lecornu has the political capital to survive.
The fundamental challenge remains unchanged. France’s parliament is deeply fragmented, compromise is culturally rare, and the public is seething at the prospect of austerity. Unless Lecornu can strike a lasting understanding with the Socialist Party, his government risks collapsing as quickly as his predecessors’.
Economic Strains Behind Political Turmoil
France’s political crisis cannot be separated from its economic struggles. Public debt now stands at roughly 114 percent of GDP, a staggering rise of €1 trillion in just three years. The deficit remains double the EU’s 3 percent limit, hovering around 5 to 6 percent annually. Interest payments alone consume more than €50 billion each year, a burden that will only grow as borrowing costs rise.
The underlying problem is structural. France’s aging population has pushed pension and social security spending to unsustainable levels, while economic growth remains sluggish at around one percent annually. Attempts to reform pensions and welfare have repeatedly triggered protests, most recently when Bayrou sought to freeze benefits and abolish holidays.
For investors, this political paralysis is alarming. Bond spreads have widened, signalling higher risk premiums for French debt. France now borrows at nearly the same rates as Italy—an unthinkable scenario only a few years ago. The fear is not of an immediate collapse, but of prolonged stagnation and rising costs that eat away at France’s fiscal credibility.
Europe Feels the Shockwaves
France’s domestic instability is more than a national crisis- it reverberates across Europe. As the EU’s second-largest economy and a founding member of the Union, France plays a central role in shaping European policy. Yet with Paris consumed by domestic infighting, its ability to lead in Brussels is diminished.
The European Union has already expressed concern about France’s ability to meet its fiscal commitments. Paris has pledged to reduce its deficit to below 3 percent of GDP by 2029, but each failed government raises doubts about the credibility of that promise. Should France falter, Brussels may be forced to launch an excessive deficit procedure, a move that would strain relations further at a time when multiple member states are already overshooting fiscal targets.
The geopolitical consequences are equally troubling. A weakened France undermines Europe’s capacity to act decisively on trade, industrial policy, climate change, and defence. It also emboldens euro-sceptic and far-right forces within the European Parliament.
Macron: Weakened at Home, Influential Abroad
Paradoxically, while Macron’s domestic authority has waned, his role on the international stage remains significant. He has been one of Europe’s most visible leaders in the Russia–Ukraine war, balancing support for Kyiv with diplomatic overtures aimed at keeping dialogue open. His push for European “strategic autonomy” has resonated in Brussels and Berlin, where debates about defence integration and energy independence dominate policy discussions.
Macron’s international stature highlight’s France’s enduring importance. Even as his domestic opponents attack him, EU leaders and NATO allies continue to look to Paris for leadership. The risk, however, is that prolonged instability at home will eventually erode France’s credibility abroad, leaving Macron increasingly isolated as his presidency limps toward 2027.
France’s Uncertain Future
Where France goes from here remains unclear. Three paths are most frequently discussed in Parisian political circles.
The first is that the new elected PM Lecornu manages to cobble together a fragile coalition, likely with the Socialists, to pass a budget and provide short-term stability. This would not solve the deeper fiscal challenges but could reassure markets and Brussels that France remains governable.
The second option is new legislative elections. Macron has the constitutional power to dissolve parliament once a year, and many speculate he may eventually resort to this. But polls suggest the outcome would mirror the current stalemate, or worse, strengthen the far right.
The third and most likely scenario is continued paralysis. France may limp forward with short-lived governments, unable to pass meaningful reforms, while debt rises and protests escalate. Populist forces on both left and right will gain ground, fuelling anger at “elite” institutions and further eroding the centre.
What It Means for Europe
France today embodies both fragility and resilience. What began as Macron’s risky gamble has deepened into a prolonged crisis of governance, marked by fragmented politics, strained public finances, and the rise of populist movements. The appointment of Sébastien Lecornu as prime minister offers a narrow opening for stability, yet without structural reforms and a spirit of compromise, even his leadership may struggle to steer the country forward.
For the European Union, France’s turbulence is more than a domestic concern- it is both a challenge and a warning. A fractured France undermines Europe’s ability to maintain fiscal discipline, craft common policies, and project global power at a moment when the bloc confronts strategic rivalry with China, economic competition with the United States, and the ongoing war on its eastern frontier. Still, Europe is not without defences: the eurozone is stronger than in the past, and Brussels now has tools to contain financial contagion. Macron’s continued presence in the Élysée also ensures a degree of continuity, especially in foreign policy, where he remains an influential voice in navigating the Russia–Ukraine conflict.
Ultimately, France stands at a crossroads, and its trajectory will shape not only its own destiny but that of Europe as a whole. If Paris can overcome its divisions and reclaim its traditional role as a driver of European unity, the EU will emerge stronger. If not, the instability at the heart of Europe could erode the continent’s capacity to meet the defining challenges of our time. For now, uncertainty prevails, and the rest of Europe watches anxiously as France searches for a path out of the crisis.
Article by Swaratmika Dubey