COVID-19 deaths in India could peak in next 15-20 days, at over 5,000 per day

The deaths due to COVID-19 have crossed all previous records in India as more than 3,000 people succumbed to the virus in the last 24 hours. With the daily infections accelerating at an enormous speed, the pandemic has killed already killed around 3,104,743 people as of April 26. With the continuous rise in daily cases of COVID-19 infections, a US study has warned that the daily tally of coronavirus-induced deaths could peak by mid-May at 5,600 which could result in additional 3,29,000 fatalities between April 12 and August 1.

The study titled ‘COVID-19 projections’ was conducted by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and estimated that over three lakh people in India may lose their lives to COVID-19 between April to July alone. Assessing the current death and infection rate in India, the study predicted that the COVID-19 pandemic is going to get worse in the country in the coming weeks.  

While estimating the peak in mid-May, the American study by IHME also added that if effective vaccination rolls out in India, there is a possibility to tide over the pandemic. 

The second wave will peak by mid-May:

The count at which infections are spreading in India has yet not reached its peak and various studies suggest that the current second wave of COVID-19 infections is to reach its peak by mid-May.

According to the study, the daily tally of COVID-induced death will peak at 5,600 on May 10 of this year, leading to additional 3,29,000 deaths before August 1 making the total death toll could rise up to 6,65,000.

COVID-19 fifth leading cause of death for Indians:

As per the analysis of IHME, the COVID-19 disease has now become the fifth leading cause of deaths in India as far as the month of April is concerned. In the study, the researchers involved estimated that about 24 percent of India’s population till now has been exposed to COVID-19 as of April 12 of this year.

The claim is based on the estimation that the daily deaths in the last week increased to about 1,500 per day on an average in contrast to 970 deaths per day before. 

COVID-19 cases in India are 20 times more than officially declared:

In the recorded analysis, IHME professor Christopher JL Murray said, “There are many more COVID-19 cases in India than Government of India has officially declared. The exponential rise in cases and deaths continues in India, and our analysis of seroprevalence surveys is telling us what the infection detection rate is below 5 percent, maybe around 3-4 percent.”

“This means that the number of cases that are being detected needs to be multiplied by 20 or more to get the correct number of infections that are occurring in India.”

Through this analysis, it was clearly indicated that India would have already crossed the mark of 6 million infections.

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