In September, Shigeru Ishiba, the current Japanese Prime minister, proposed an alliance between Japan and the US similar to NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) to counter Chinese military aggression. Ishiba was then a contender for the PM position in the country from the Liberal Democratic Party and was campaigning for his Prime-ministerial race. Ishiba, who is a long proponent of such a treaty, had a detailed written proposal that he presented at the Hudson Institute think tank that indicated his possible stance on his administration’s diplomatic goals.
This proposal, however, met with backlash, as many ally countries distanced themselves from it. Political analysts and scholars also deemed it unfeasible. In a press brief in Washington, Daniel Kritenbrink, the assistant secretary of state for East Asia and the Pacific of the US government, rejected the proposal calling it hasty. Australian PM Albanese also distanced himself from this discussion during the ASEAN summit in the following weeks. Indian Minister of External Affairs also rejected the idea stating that India has never been a treaty ally of any country and has no plans for such strategic architecture.
This kind of treaty with the USA is not new and holds various advantages and disadvantages.
The Advantages of Asian Nato
A possible response to Beijing’s Aggression
During his speech at the US Hudson University, where Ishiba proposed this idea, he particularly emphasised China’s aggressive expansionism as the principal reason for the need for such an organisation. “Today’s Ukraine tomorrow is Taiwan”, Ishiba said in his address signalling the volatile state the continent of Asia is in amidst Beijing’s ambitions. Several Asian countries are wary of China in the region and the most crucial of them is its action towards Taiwan as it sits at the heart of the global semiconductor supply chain. A treaty with the USA that promises mutual security obligation could directly hinder China’s expansionism. Any act of military aggression against any member country would be considered a direct move against the USA and has the potential to start a war. Although China is a powerful country in terms of both economy and military, it surely cannot afford to confront the USA in a war.
Ease of Business
The NATO nations along with security promises enjoy various economic advantages both from the USA and each other as a member of the treaty. Lesser regulations, lower tariffs and charges, ease of transportation and financial security make a suitable environment for business to thrive. This could also be true for the Asian region if there is any such treaty between the regional countries. Opportunity for economic progress and obligation also deter the countries away from war and confrontations.
Japan’s Military Autonomy
After the end of World War II and the fall of the Japanese Empire, it drafted a new constitution and adopted democracy under the oversight of the USA. According to the provisions of this constitution, Japan cannot accumulate military forces except for certain domestic security purposes. All the military interests of Japan will be safeguarded by the US military and if a warlike situation arises any assistance the country needs will be provided by the USA even to the extent of nuclear weapons. This has been a standard policy for Japan when it comes to the USA throughout modern history, even amidst international turbulences like the Vietnam War, Arab Spring and Cold War. However, after the Cold War, there rose a sentiment within fractions of the Japanese that advocated for Japanese military autonomy. And the decades after that the sentiment only amplified. Today most Japanese citizen resents their military dependency on America and wish for their own security forces to safeguard the country’s interests. This new treaty opened the way for this potential autonomy where the sharing of military capabilities between Japan and America is possible. Ishiba proposed that the revision of the military treaty would able Japan to station troops in Guam Bay and also able Japan to pursue independent military treaties with countries like Britain, France and India.
The Disadvantages of Asian Nato
The proposal with its several advantages creates several disadvantages within Japan as well as the region.
US Dominant Regional Politics
It is a justified concern of the Asian countries that such a treaty would bring US involvement in regional affairs to an increased level. The power imbalance will dictate the policy decisions and not always in the favour of all. Secondly, the US presence in any multilateral security grouping makes it difficult for other countries to push beyond a limit if their interests diverge. Third, the post-colonial countries in the region still regard their strategic autonomy and sovereignty as sacrosanct and being a part of a multilateral security arrangement takes away the sense of independence. It is worth mentioning that there is the possibility of an increase in regional tensions and insecurities if such a treaty came to be, instead of a decrease.
The threat of an all-out War
The war between Russia and Ukraine traces its cause to the US-backed NATO expansion, surrounding the Russian border. Although Moscow is the aggressor, NATO and its Western allies are not without faults. Similar situations can arise in Asia if China is cornered. With its proximity to Taiwan, India and Japan a war however small or big can impact the regional stability and economy in a worse manner than it is today.
Economic Fallout
The potential for economic fallout is also at high possibility. Taiwan remains a case in point. The small island country sits at the heart of the global semiconductor supply chain and has numerous microchip technologies that are unavailable to many countries. Due to Chinese aggression, it already has deep ties with the US and under such a treaty it may go completely under the influence of America. The US could use this to further its cause by undermining the regional interests and reprimanding any country that’s inimical to them as the US is notorious for influencing countries and institutions for sanctions. Another aspect of this economic tension lies with China. The country is now the biggest manufacturer through both its national and international proxies. Similar to the Russia-Ukraine war, a trade standoff could cause the crumble of the global supply chain of many essential products and goods in which China is involved.
At this point, the debate about Asian NATO is still prevalent in Japanese politics, with Ishiba being its biggest cheerleader. During a security meeting on 28th November, this issue is discussed along with several important foreign policy issues between the ruling party legislators. Although there is no possibility of any official proposal regarding Asian NATO, it is yet to be seen how Ishiba will navigate to accomplish his long ambition.