future of gold price

Gold in India has always been more than a metal it is a core memory, inheritance, and a reflection of trust and authority. It glows in family rituals, festive ornaments, and even in our vocabulary of blessings. For generations after generations, Indians have turned to gold not only for beauty but for stability purposes as well. Yet, in the contemporary era, especially the year 2025, this same gold stands at the centre of a new global dialogue and guess what it can be?
“The phase where tradition meets the forces of economy, diplomacy, and digital finance”.

The glamorous and Golden Appetite of India: A Global Leader

If we were to visualize global demand, a bar graph would statistically show India and China towering above all the other countries, together accounting for nearly half of the world’s total gold consumption.
But there’s a twist over here, while China exports refined gold, India primarily imports it which is nearly close to 800–900 tonnes every single year.

According to the World Gold Council’s Q2 2025 report, global demand rose to 1,249 tonnes, led by investors and central banks. India’s strong and consistent appetite for gold mirrors a reflection of deep cultural confidence and economic aspiration deep rooted in the mindset of the people.

Some Government Measures: From Metal to “Paper Gold”

Acknowledging the need to reduce imports and boost formal investment, the Indian government has introduced and strengthened several forward-looking initiatives:

1. Sovereign Gold Bond (SGB) Scheme:

    Citizens can now directly invest digitally in gold and earn interest, removing the need for storage or making charges.

    2. Gold Monetisation Scheme (GMS):

    Allows households to deposit idle gold with banks to earn profitable returns. (In March 2025, long-term deposit options were discontinued due to streamline the scheme.)

    3. Digital Gold Platforms:

    This enable buyers to purchase fractional grams of gold online which is simple, safe, convenient and transparent.

    In October 2025, the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) issued Public Notice No. 31/2025-26, mandating BIS hallmarking and GST registration for importers using the India–UAE trade pact (CEPA) under the Tariff Rate Quota.
    This strong move strengthens transparency and ensures that the gold which is entering India shall meet the national purity and quality standards necessary.

    Duty Revisions and Trade Reforms

    The Union Budget of July 2024 marked one of India’s most significant trade shifts in over a decade, let’s reflect on it:

    1. Gold bars: Import duty cut from ~15 % → 6 %
    2. Gold doré: Reduced from ~14.35 % → 5.35 %

    According to Economic Times and Reuters, this policy helped channel imports through several significant legal routes and has reduced smuggling incentives, while keeping India competitive in the international market.

    These decisions reflect the government’s diplomatic and fiscal precision in minutely balancing and monitoring cultural demands with economic stability.

    The Price and Market Outlook:

    The World Gold Council (Feb 2025) had placed India’s landed 24-carat gold price around ₹ 88,946 per 10 g, while ClearTax (2025) noted that there was an average retail rise from about ₹ 64,000 in 2024 to nearly ₹ 94,000 by the mid of 2025.

    In September 2025, Indian Gold ETFs recorded ₹ 8,363 crore inflows, pushing total assets under the management up by 24 % month-on-month as per the reports of Economic Times, Oct 2025.

    Economists are forecasting a 4–6 % annual increase through 2026 due to global geopolitical tensions and strong central-bank demand. Only a major US interest rate shift might cause a short-term softening in the gold prices.

    Two Decades of Gold: Price Timeline in India

    In 2001, the retail price of 24-carat gold in India was around ₹4,000 per 10 grams, during a period of early-2000s economic stability when gold was mostly considered a traditional family asset.

    By the year 2008, the price had climbed to nearly ₹12,000 per 10 grams, reflecting an average annual rise of about 20%, massively triggered by the global financial crisis.

    In 2011, gold touched approximately ₹28,000 per 10 grams, showing a steep 30% annual growth which was directly influenced by the Euro-zone debt crisis and high inflation rates.

    A few years later, by 2015, gold prices saw a mild correction, settling around ₹26,000 per 10 grams, registering about –2% average annual change.

    Then came the 2020 pandemic, which drove a massive surge in the demand of gold as a financial shield. The prices shot up to roughly ₹55,000 per 10 grams, with an average rise of 17% per year between 2015 and 2020. This was a tremendous increase.

    Finally, by the year 2025, gold has reached around ₹94,000 per 10 grams, showing an approximate 11% average annual growth over the last five years.

    (Sources: ClearTax 2025; World Gold Council; The Economic Times Archives input.)

    In the past twenty-four years, gold’s price in India has grown by over 2000 %, on an average about 11 % per year.

    1. World Gold Council — “India Gold Market Update (Feb 2025)”; “Gold Demand Trends Q2 2025.”
    2. Economic Times — “Gold ETF Inflows Jump Fourfold in September to ₹ 8,363 Crore,” 8 Oct 2025.
    3. ClearTax — “Historical Gold Prices in India,” 2025.
    4. DGFT Trade Notice No. 31/2025-26 (India–UAE CEPA Gold TRQ).
    5. Reuters — “India Slashes Import Tax on Gold and Silver to 6%,” 23 Jul 2024.
    6. Business Standard — “India’s New Import Policy for Gold, Silver and Platinum,” May 2025.
    7. World Gold Council — “Global ETF Flows Q3 2025 Record Report.”

    The Global Context: Confidence Through Uncertainty

    If we look around the world, central banks especially in China, Turkey, and Poland have expanded gold reserves, treating it as a hedge against currency fluctuations and geopolitical risks.

    According to the World Gold Council, the year 2025 has witnessed the largest quarterly inflow into gold-backed ETFs in last five years.
    Gold, once a symbol of wealth, has now become the currency of global caution and India does stand among its most responsible participants.

    For Everyday Investors, What’s the condition?

    Experts suggest that keeping 10–15 % of one’s total savings in gold could prove to be fruitful.
    Because for several cultural and emotional reasons, jewellery remains very important; but for financial planning, SGBs, ETFs, or digital gold are much safer and reliable, interest-bearing, and easy to liquidate. Such diversification respects both tradition and modernity which further becomes a hallmark of India’s evolving investment culture around Gold.

    The future of gold is not about mere price charts but it is all about faith and foresight. Whether shining in a bride’s bangle or glowing on a smartphone screen as a Sovereign Gold Bond, gold in India continues to unite emotion with economical transactions. It remains the one asset that Indians hold not just for profit, but for a peace of mind as well. A silent assurance that through every uncertainty, something of enduring worth shall always prevail.

    Article by Sruti

    Leave a Reply

    Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *