The world in the 21st century is witnessing a profound geopolitical reshuffle, where the African continent is positioning itself at the global strategic epicentre, rather than remaining in the periphery. The continent, once viewed through the skewed lens of post-colonial fragility and aid-dependency, is now at the centre of global political and economic competition.
This transformation is driven by Africa’s endowment of abundant natural resources, which is critical to the future global economy. Prominent amongst them are the necessary rare earth elements like cobalt, lithium, manganese, and platinum group metals, which are vital for the green economy and decarbonisation. With Africa, what we are seeing now is the new and evolved form of engagement that is shifting the global order.
Quantifying the Resource Storage
To understand the intensity of the global competition for Africa’s resources, one must understand the scale of the resource pool that the continent holds.
The pivoting of the world from fossil fuel, pushed the lithium-ion battery and global semiconductor industry into a frenzy. In total, Africa holds approximately 30% of the world’s rare earth mineral reserves. Data reveal that Africa possesses 55-70% of the total global cobalt reserves, with the Republic of Congo alone accounting for 70% of the global cobalt trade and production. South Africa is home to 90% of platinum group metal reserves of the world. The continent also has 47-56% of global manganese reserves and 36% of global chromium reserves. The country of Guinea produces a quarter of global aluminium, which is a crucial metal used in solar panels. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that by 2040, demand for lithium will surge fivefold, cobalt demand will double, and copper demand will rise by 30%.
On top of these rare earth minerals, the African continent is also home to a substantial chunk of global fossil fuel. The country holds around 12% of global petroleum reserves and 85 of natural gas reserves. This, combined with the discovery of new oil reserves, makes the African continent one of the world’s top five largest oil producers.
However, the resource that would be the most relevant in the future is the ‘arable land’ or, in simple terms, farming soil. In the coming future, Africa is set to be the key to global security, as it holds the world’s 60-65% uncultivated arable land, on top of the existing cultivated land.
Africa’s Resource: A Double-Edged Sword
Although the continent is the house of abundant resources and has unlimited potential, this resource is also its biggest curse. Since old times the continent has been the target of European colonisers due to its wealth. Even after its independence, the continent has still not recovered from its dark times. Inequality, Poverty, and food scarcity are still prevalent in some parts of this land. Infrastructure gap, governance deficit, and corruption are still embedded in many countries of this continent. Countries like Congo and Sudan are in constant conflict due to their potential wealth opportunities. On top of that, silent external players are also fueling uncertainty in this continent, eyeing these resources in Africa. The final hurdle is also the capacity and capital deficit that the countries of the African continent are facing in extracting and utilising the wealth that is dormant on the continent.
The Game of Chess: How Africa is Becoming the Centre of Global Resource Competition
The above factors make Africa a perfect centrepiece of a global resource competition. However, this power struggle is not like the traditional monolithic takeover, but one of a complex marketplace of ideas, capital, and influence. Various global powers invest in the continent with their own vested interest, but now the continent can engage with different partners offering vastly different models of involvement, without compromising its sovereignty and autonomy.
The one leading in this race is the country of China, which adapts the methods reflecting its own scale and ambition. The investment strategy involves mainly the massive infrastructure projects that come under its Belt and Road Initiative. As of 2024, China is Africa’s leading trading partner, with the trade reaching a massive $294 billion. The appeal of Chinese investment is addressing the continent’s most pressing needs, which are infrastructure through state-owned enterprises. The drawbacks in this economic relationship are deeply asymmetrical, as Africa primarily exports raw materials like crude oil, copper, and cobalt, while importing finished Chinese goods such as textiles, machinery, and electronics. The use of opaque, high-interest commercial loans has also led to accusations of “debt-trap diplomacy” against China, where countries unable to service their debt are forced to make strategic concessions.
The second to the rest is the Western powers, which include the UAS and Europe. The European side has been maintaining its normative stance, and the USA has been actively trying to position itself as the counter to China. As of now, the US has been moving slowly in implementing its influence in Africa, but in recent years, it has been actively pursuing stepping into the sectors that involve China, like critical minerals, green infrastructure, and their supply chains. As of 2024, the U-Africa trade stands at $104.9 billion, with more than 300 active projects. Europe, on the other hand, has positioned its Africa strategy as a “values-based” and sustainable alternative to the models offered by other global powers. European Union, under its Global Gateway programme, has pledged to invest 150 billion euros in this continent and by 2063, it intends to establish its own local value chains in line with the African Union, emphasising green and digital transitions, good governance, and transparency.
Another unexpected power that is entering the play in Africa is Russia. After 2022, Russia has been aggressively pursuing Africa due to the isolation it faced because of the Russia-Ukraine war. The Russian influence in Africa, however, is rooted primarily in the political and security arenas. It offers security partnerships, arms sales, nuclear energy deals, along with diplomacy centred on food and energy security to cultivate alliances, particularly with regimes that have become isolated from the West.
The India Model: Partnership Built on Trust and Capacity
Amongst this global race to establish a stronghold in Africa, an alternative path is emerging, which is built on trust, capacity building, and mutual growth. That path is led by India. India has deep-rooted historical ties with Africa, where many countries of the continent share a past of anti-colonial hardship and struggle. On top of that, both India and Africa are part of the global south, thus making them have a similar overview of foreign policy, such as cooperation, mutual benefit, and non-interference in the internal affairs of partner nations.
The very focus of India in Africa is the mutual growth and human development, which moves beyond simple trade, aid, or traditional engagements. India has extended $12.26 billion in Lines of Credit (LoCs) and billions more in grant assistance, funding projects in sectors ranging from agriculture and healthcare to infrastructure and energy, all while ensuring the autonomy of the partner nations in Africa. To accelerate human development, India has provided numerous scholarships to African students in its universities. The bilateral trade between India and Africa has grown substantially, standing at approximately $83.34 billion in 2023-24. Cumulative Indian investment in the continent has reached around $74 billion, with a stated ambition from Indian industry and government to increase this figure to $150 billion by 2030. India is also engaging with Africa in enriching the continent’s digital infrastructure. Indian companies are providing direct and customised solutions to African nations with their problems in healthcare, agriculture and the energy sector. The membership of G20 to the African Union is advocated and executed by India.
African nations are increasingly transitioning from being objects of geopolitical manoeuvring to becoming strategic actors in their own right. They are levraging their resources in negotiations, strengthing their regional relations, and establishing their soveriginty in the global stage. The great game for Africa’s resources is a test of whether the world can support a partnership model that fosters shared prosperity, recognising that in the 21st century, Africa’s success is indispensable to its own.
Article by Shubhkanta Bhanja