The recent shifts in the relations between the United States, Pakistan, and India raise many questions about where things are headed in South Asia. One of the most prominent developments is how the U.S. has been trying to rebuild and strengthen its ties with Pakistan; a country it hasn’t always shared the best history with, quite everyone is aware of this. There’s a mix of strategic, diplomatic, and economic reasons behind this new engagement, and it’s important to try and read between the lines. What exactly could be the reason behind the contemporary changes. We need to dive deep within the pores to know what exactly how long has it penetrated.
It all began when the U.S. attempting to mediate a ceasefire between India and Pakistan following tensions, including the Pahalgam attack. Several news channels highlighted that even Donald Trump tried to step in as a peacemaker, but was it true? While current updates on the outcome are unclear, what we do know is that Pakistan openly appreciated the U.S. mediation and even went as far as proposing that Trump should be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. On the surface, this looks like a diplomatic thankyou!!, but deep down, it might be more about winning favour, seems to be very suspicious through the lens of a political diplomat. In international politics, no move is just a gesture it’s always backed by strategy. And this has been followed since history.
High-level diplomatic visits are reinforcing this effort. For instance, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar met with U.S. Secretary Rubio in Washington on July 25, 2025, and shortly after, CENTCOM Chief General Kurilla visited Pakistan for a regional defense chiefs’ conference. These are not ordinary visits. They’re basically signs of serious cooperation between these two countries, with promises to work together on peace, economy, and counterterrorism. But again, there’s a plot twist, this may also partially be the reason why Pakistan nominated Trump for the Nobel peace prize. It might be a clever diplomatic play to ensure continuous U.S. support.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is investing heavily in counterterrorism operations in Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan is preparing itself to attract U.S. investment in digital infrastructure, cryptocurrency, and other areas. At a glance, these look like regular economic deals. But like the moral in the story of the crow and the pitcher, there’s a deeper message; ‘you must help yourself when no one else does’. Just like the crow had to use its brain and drop pebbles into the pitcher to reach the water, countries today are creating strategic deals to serve their own long-term interests. The U.S.–Pakistan relationship today seems to be based more on transactional and pragmatic interests, rather than any ideological alignment. And one can’t deny this fact.
These trade and energy deals could be breakthroughs for Pakistan but whether they succeed depends entirely on Pakistan’s ability to maintain internal stability, which has always been a challenge. Historically, Pakistan has been seen as a terror-prone nation, and while it now appears to be seeking balance, the world is still skeptical about how long that balance can last.
In August 2025, ties between the U.S. and Pakistan seem centered around commerce, energy, and counterterrorism. The U.S. is clearly shifting its broader strategy from controlling countries through wars and military dominance to influencing them through economic power. It understands that the battlefield is now the economy, and it wants to maintain its relevance in South Asia, especially as China’s presence in Pakistan grows. The U.S. cannot afford to lose Pakistan entirely to China’s influence : it needs to stay very active in the game.
At the same time, Pakistan is in desperate need of economic support. With rising debt, power shortages, and even India cutting off water supply, the country is struggling. That’s where the U.S. finds an opportunity : to help and gain. In May 2025, when India–Pakistan tensions rose again, the U.S. acted as a mediator, which gave it a perfect excuse to re-enter the region diplomatically and rebuild older, broken ties.
The current Pakistani government, led by PM Shahbaz Sharif and FM Ishaq Dar, is relatively more pro-business and diplomatic than past administrations. For them, maintaining good relations with both China and the U.S. is smart. And from Pakistan’s point of view, the U.S. is still a better dealmaker in many areas, offering more flexibility and better long-term gains than what China could provide them with.
Pakistan’s strategic location which is next to Afghanistan, Iran, India, and China gives it a lot of geopolitical weight. It’s like the mitochondria of global politics, quietly powerful and essential. The U.S. needs intelligence sharing, regional stability, and military access. So keeping Pakistan close, without fully isolating India, becomes a necessary balancing act.
But recently, this balance has been shaken abruptly.
In July 2025, Trump announced a 25% tariff on several Indian exports. For those who are unfamiliar with the term tariff. Let’s figure out first. A tariff is basically a tax on imported goods. So, if India exports cotton to the U.S., American buyers now have to pay 25% more to buy that same cotton. That makes Indian goods expensive and less competitive in the U.S. market.
This decision confused many regarding ‘Why would the U.S. hurt India, one of its strongest democratic allies?’
One possible reason is that India continued buying oil from Russia, even after the U.S. had asked all countries to reduce or stop trade with Russia following the Ukraine conflict. Trump may have seen this as disobedience, and this tariff might be his way of saying, “If you don’t follow my rules, you’ll face consequences.”
Naturally, this is a big blow to India. Key exports like Basmati rice, textiles, medicine, auto parts, and tech products are now much more expensive in the U.S. market. American importers may start buying from Pakistan, Bangladesh, or other cheaper countries. In contrast, the U.S. has lowered tariffs on Pakistani goods to around 6–10%, giving Pakistan a big market advantage. Here’s the main turning point.
While India has taken a few steps in response:
Denied any link between the U.S. trade deal and the earlier ceasefire mediation.
Threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs on American goods. As people say, “If you slap someone, expect a slap back, don’t you?”
Started looking for new markets in Europe, Africa, and Southeast Asia. And has entered negotiations to try and reverse or reduce the U.S. tariffs.
For now, we can only wait and watch how this plays out. But here’s where it gets deeper:
Despite the tensions, U.S. and India still share a deep bond; both are large democracies with strong cooperation in defense, technology, education, climate, and more. Both also see China as a mutual strategic challenge.
However, issues like India buying oil from Russia, and the U.S. imposing heavy tariffs, can create discomfort and distrust. India may feel heavily betrayed, while the U.S. might feel India is not being loyal to shared strategic interests.
It won’t fully break the relationship, but it will definitely leave cracks and cracks benefit Pakistan, at least in the short term yes it does to a great extent.
But here’s the catch, and guess what it can be? Pakistan’s past shows inconsistency. Economically and politically, it often fails to maintain long-term commitments. So even if the U.S. is using Pakistan to serve its interests now, the real worth of these deals will depend on how stable and reliable Pakistan remains in the years to come.