On December 8, Bashar al-Assad the leader of the Assad regime in Syria fled his country to Russia as rebel groups succeeded in advancing towards Damascus, the capital city of the country. Soon after the rebels captured Damascus declaring their victory in the civil war that started in 2011 and marked the fall of the hereditary sectarian totalitarian Assad regime that has been ruling the country of Syria since 1971. This, however, is not an isolated event, but the latest domino to fall in the unrest that grappled the Middle East since the start of the war between Israel and Palestine. It also can be said that this event represents the evolving power dynamic in the region whose direction will be crucial for attaining peace, if that happens, in the near future.
Syrian Civil War and the events leading to the latest conflict between the regime and the rebels
The al-Assad family established their rule in Syria in the year 1971 and Hafez al-Assad became the president of Syria under the Syrian Ba’ath Party. His elder son Bassel al-Assad was next in line for the presidential seat but he died in a car accident in 1994. After that Bashar al-Assad, the third child of Hafez was chosen to be the next leader. In the year 2000 with the death of Hafez, Bashar al-Assad became the leader of Syria. His initial days of ruling saw several reforms in the country in both economic and cultural fields, but, the arrival of the Arab Spring to Syria unmasked the real face of Bashar.
The Arab Spring is a series of anti-establishment protests that spread through Middle-Eastern countries, starting in Tunisia in the early 2010s. In 2011, massive anti-establishment protests took place in Syria against the Assad government. To suppress these demonstrations the regime took hard retaliatory steps using the military that injured and killed many Syrians. The armed forces used weapons, poison gas and barrel bombs to crack down on demonstrators. Over 388,000 lives were lost, and 12 million Syrians were displaced, making it one of the worst humanitarian crises of the 21st century. As a result, many rebel factions rose against the regime and the escalations became a full-fledged multi-fractional civil war. As the war escalated it saw the involvement of foreign powers making it a proxy war that continued for thirteen years.
Five key fractions in the Syrian Civil War control several regions of the country. Predominant among the rebel fraction is the Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham or HTS rebels, which control the Pockets of northern and southern Syria. The Turkey-backed rebels Syrian National Army, control the north region bordering Turkey. The Kurdish militias control eastern Syria which comprises Shia minority populations. Some regions in the southeast are controlled by ISIS terrorists. The rest of it is controlled by the Assad Regime.
However, the involvement of foreign entities also further complicates the already sensitive situation. The country is also tangled in proxy warfare inside the country between international fractions. Russia and Iran are the staunch supporters of the Assad regime. Iran provides money, firepower and sometimes militia troops to the Syrian military to fight against Western interests as well as Israel. In multiple instances, it stationed Hezbollah and its own IRGC troops in support of the Assad regime. Russia has at times provided Syrian military air support to fight the rebels. It holds an air base inside the country. Turkey backs the SNA rebels in their fight and provides monetary and weapon assistance. It trains the rebels in fighting, special ops and coordinated drone attacks. America also operates a military base in the country which was used to fight Al-Qaeda and ISIS. The USA was also training and equipping several rebel factions to topple the Assad regime. The operation spearheaded by the CIA, is an inter-agency operation named Operation Timber Sycamore, between the years 2013 and 2017. The troops they trained, however, are active and fighting in various rebel groups operating in the country.
Assad Regime Collapse
For more than 14 years the Assad regime held the helm of Syria with abundant support from Russia and Iran. Russia in 2022 invaded Ukraine and focused its entire military capabilities on its borders. With the Israel-Palestine war, Israel started hampering Iran directly and indirectly. It almost wiped out Hezbollah and started targeting both Iran and Syria’s strategic facilities. Syrian military lost their advantage and the rebel forces knew that as well.
According to international charters, the plan to mobilise the rebel troops took shape six months before and several of the rebel beneficiaries were well aware of the plan. Multiple rebel groups with coordination, launched the armed campaign against the military on the 27th of November and leading them was the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed al-Sharaa. The offensive officially known as the “Deterrence of Aggression” started with the goal of deterring Russian airstrikes against civilians and expelling Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) proxies. The attack was on the region of Aleppo which was an Iranian stronghold, captured by the rebels within 48 hours. Bashar went into damage control mode and started seeking international support which ultimately was unfruitful. By December 3 Aleppo was completely under the control of HTS and the rebels started moving towards Hama. December 4 saw the capture of Hama and the rebel movement towards Damascus, the capital city of Syria. On December 7 Bashar left Damascus for Khmeimim and through a Russian vessel he was flown to Russia on 8th December where his family was already living. By then his brother and close allies all fled Syria to Moscow, Abu Dhabi, Baghdad, Beirut, and Benghazi. The rebels captured Damascus on the 8th and established control.
The Aftermath and the Future of Syria
The liberation of Syria- a soft liberation according to some experts- is also riddled with complications like its history. Amongst them, the rebel group HTS which now holds the power in Damascus stands as a matter of major concern. With the Assad regime toppled, the Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham rebel group and its leader Ahmed al-Sharaa obtained power in Syria and established a caretaker government which is planned to be active for the coming three months. The organisation, however, has a deeply problematic history and direct ties that can make the Syrian future uncertain. HTS and its members primarily consist of militants who were part of the terrorist organisation Al-Qaeda. Al-Sharra himself was an active member of the Al-Qaeda under the name of Abu Mohammad al-Julani. In 2017 the HTS was formed by the amalgamation of several small rebel fractions that hold primarily Sunni fundamentalist ideologies. HTS still is recognised as a terrorist outfit by US intelligence and has been placed under sanctions to date.
There is also a possibility of the emergence of terror outfits like ISIS which holds certain influence in Syria to this day. The Kurdish militias comprised of the Kurd Shia minority population also fear the implications of incompatibility in this new government and very much advocate for a separate state. Minority Christian populations are also uncertain regarding their safety under the new government. Israel in recent days started bombing critical weapon and chemical facilities to prevent them from falling under extremist control. Retaliation from Iran is a small possibility as several pockets of regions still house Assad sympathisers. The caretaker government however promises tolerance, inclusivity and good governance.
Several Arab countries also worry that this event will set precedence for anti-establishment movements in their country and trigger widespread protests and potential civil wars. However, the most worrisome scenario lies with the country of Iran. With, Assad gone Iran loses another one of its proxies after Hezbollah which only predicts more uncertainty in an already volatile region. Although there is no official confirmation, there is a strong possibility that Iran has devolved nuclear warheads and with gradually being backed into a corner its next step could potentially trigger a next great war.