In the aftermath of the Cold War and the subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union, there was a vacuum of power in the Indian Ocean region. Traditionally a crucial trade route and later a strategic region in world politics, the Indian Ocean region was divided into power chambers in the late 80s mainly within India and China. Western interests were minimal, vested through third-party channels and sometimes directly in specific strategic locations.
India’s approach traditionally has been of the defensive type when it came to the Indian Ocean. It preferred peaceful and non-expansionist policies. Despite that early on, the Indian Navy understood the importance of the region and took steps to secure its maritime border and trade interests. However, the other major player in this region did not prefer this approach. China, as its economic capabilities grew, showed its expansionist ambitions in the region. Its methods often include provocation, intimidation and sometimes borderline illegal approach or acts.
China applies three principal methods to execute its Indian Ocean ambitions. These are;
Loan Schemes
Providing high-interest rate loans to smaller economies in the disguise of lucrative infrastructure investment is one of the sure-shot ways for China to establish influence in the last two decades. Countries like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Maldives are some of the countries are some of the countries that are stuck in these types of bad debts.
Weapons Export
China exports weapons to strategically situated countries to surround its rivals like Taiwan, India and Japan. Countries that import from China also depend on China for maintenance, restocking, and repairs.
Direct Naval deployments
Since 2008, China has been actively deploying to the Indian Ocean. In particular, China has sent submarines, which are a threat that can attack other countries’ sea lanes. It has deployed 148 new vessels alone in the last decade.
Apart from these, there are some illegal tactics that China frequently uses to mark its presence in the region.
China has systemically built its Distance Water Fishery (DWF) industry, making it the largest in both catch and volume size. However, the ships of this fleet rank as the worst offenders of illegal activities out of 152 other country fleets. Under the Environmental Justice Foundation (EJF), an investigation of ex-workers of Chinese ships found that Chinese boats, 80% of them had reported shark finning — the act of removing fins from sharks and discarding the rest of the shark back into the ocean — and 59% reported the deliberate capture and injury of vulnerable marine megafauna, including manta rays, dolphins and sharks. The ships also frequently enter into foreign and reserved marine territories harassing local and small fishermen. With initiatives like the Belt and Road initiative, it also has penetrated territories that it traditionally couldn’t, increasing its footprint of illegal activities on the African coast.
Chinese Gray Zone Activities
However, the most fatal among them is the Chinese Navy’s Gray Zone activities. The Gray-zone activities refer to the military tactics used by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to intimidate and coerce regional states in favour of China advancing its domestic, economic, foreign policy, and security objectives—without triggering backlash or conflict. The tactics often include military exercises, military drills, cyber or disinformation attacks, air incursions and violent clashes in disputed territories. This is famously known as ‘War without Gunsmoke’.
Over the past decade, China employed nearly 80 different gray zone tactics across all instruments of national power against Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, India, and the Philippines. China views gray zone activities as a natural extension of how countries exercise power. According to experts on the subject matter, China tailors its gray zone activities per the target country. For example, China’s approach towards Taiwan focuses more on the military and economic avenues, whereas in the case of India, it is more on military actions.
A prime example of Naval gray zone activity is the movement of Chinese spy ships in the Indian Ocean since February of this year. Three Chinese survey and surveillance vessels are operating in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) as part of the PLA Navy’s expansionist objectives to launch carrier task force patrols by 2025 through mapping the Indo-Pacific region. Vessel Xiang Yang Hong-01 is anchored 600 miles west of the Andaman Islands, conducting trials of high-endurance autonomous underwater vehicles. Xiang Yang Hong-03 is operating 350 miles off the Maldives, employing unmanned systems for ocean observation. And Da Yang Hao the third vessel is positioned 1200 miles south of Port Louis, Mauritius, with the 45th PLA anti-piracy escort force nearby.
Countering the Dragon
All these cases indicate China’s hunger for dominance in the region and the need to counter it. When it comes to checking the Chinese expansion there are two primary aspects to it. The first one is within the CCP, which is the policy failure of the Chinese government and the other one is a regional stronghold through allies.
Chinese Policy Failures and How It deaccelerates Its Dominance:
Several Chinese policies at the fault of their structure fail and prove counter-productive to the CCP government.
Prominent of them is the Chinese loan policy, which has earned the name Chinese debt trap. Where The World Bank and the Japan-led Asian Development Bank typically offer loans at the interest rates of 0.25-3 percent, China lends at 6-8 percent. This leads to heavy interest burdens and with a slight push of a crisis, the country goes into default. Sri Lanka is a stark testament to how Chinese debt ultimately crippled the country. Maldives and Pakistan are also on the verge of default due to the Chinese debt trap.
Another instance is when China exports poor-quality weaponry to countries. Defence import and export contracts are important because not only they are of great economic importance but also, they are the display of diplomacy and alliance. Sub-standard weapons and machinery not only give a bad reputation but also put a strain on bilateral relations. An example of this is Myanmar’s purchase of the Chinese submarine Type-035 Ming Class over the Indian one, which is the Russian-built KILO class boat. Despite arriving second, the Chinese boat is hardly an upgrade, in fact, the KILO is generally considered the more capable platform.
Infrastructure projects like the Belt and Road Initiative of CCP are also heading towards failure as work in Pakistan is stagnant due to political instability. Completed projects like US$1.6 billion in Gwadar, Pakistan also not showing promised returns.
Allies Countering the Dragon
Several Western and Asian countries have also joined hands in countering Chinese expansion through several multilateral and bilateral alliances. Some of these are;
- United States and Indo-Pacific Allies, made up of Japan, South Korea, Australia and the US.
- AUKUS trilateral pact made up of Australia, UK and USA.
- US-Taiwan Bilateral Alliance
- QUAD Alliance, the most prominent one in the Indo-Pacific region including India, USA, Australia and Japan.
India plays a very crucial role in countering China’s advances, due to its strong economy, abundant skilled labour and military strength. With the alliance of Quad members, it can further check China in several avenues.
Indian Navy is expanding rapidly. Currently, it has about 140 ships, but this is expected to be 170–175 ships by 2035. Along with Quad members it also aims to develop and enhance India’s anti-submarine system.
To counter Chinese dominance in the semiconductor chip supply chain, QUAD is formed. In this alliance, Australia will provide several raw materials and essential minerals, Japan will train workforces, US will provide and share its abundant research expertise. India will be the house of manufacture and central point to the supply chain in this crucial global technology.
Apart from that to tackle the PRC’s gray zone activities India is also enhancing its naval capabilities. The recent establishment of INS Jatayu base near Maldives came at a crucial point when the island country started to lean towards Beijing. Also countering its advance towards Taiwan, the US also deployed its warships near the Taiwan coast, forming a stalemate.
These are however small scale of the steps countries are taking to counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region. China with its tactics appear as a bully in the region and as every bully goes, it is yet to be seen how China acts when it is confronted.